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Cristo Atlético vs Burgos Promesas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Cristo Atlético
Cristo Atlético
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas
5/2/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio La Nueva Balastera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Cristo Atlético43%
×Draw30%
Burgos Promesas27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cristo Atlético
1.16
Burgos Promesas
0.85

Cristo Atlético creates 36% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 63 away

creates per match

Cristo Atlético
1.38
Burgos Promesas
1.02

allows per match

Cristo Atlético
0.69
Burgos Promesas
0.94

finishing

Cristo Atlético+0.00on par
Burgos Promesas+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cristo Atlético ↓

Burgos Promesas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Cristo Atlético or draw
73%
Cristo Atlético or Burgos Promesas
70%
Draw or Burgos Promesas
57%

Winning margin

Cristo Atlético wins by 2+
18%
Burgos Promesas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cristo Atlético 1+ goals
69%
Cristo Atlético 2+ goals
32%
Cristo Atlético 3+ goals
11%
Burgos Promesas 1+ goals
57%
Burgos Promesas 2+ goals
21%
Burgos Promesas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)
62%
Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cristo Atlético at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.69 · 80 matches

Burgos Promesas away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cristo Atlético attack 1.38 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.16

Burgos Promesas attack 1.02 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cristo Atlético scores more
43%
level
30%
Burgos Promesas scores more
27%

Cristo Atlético at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cristo Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cristo Atlético 1 – 1 Burgos Promesas

Cristo Atlético and Burgos Promesas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Nueva Balastera in Palencia.