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Burgos Promesas vs Cristo Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Cristo Atlético
Cristo Atlético
12/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 14Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Burgos Promesas39%
×Draw28%
Cristo Atlético33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burgos Promesas
1.20
Cristo Atlético
1.09

Burgos Promesas creates 10% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 80 away

creates per match

Burgos Promesas
1.45
Cristo Atlético
1.36

allows per match

Burgos Promesas
0.83
Cristo Atlético
0.95

finishing

Burgos Promesas+0.00on par
Cristo Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos Promesas ↓

Cristo Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Burgos Promesas or draw
67%
Burgos Promesas or Cristo Atlético
72%
Draw or Cristo Atlético
61%

Winning margin

Burgos Promesas wins by 2+
16%
Cristo Atlético wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Burgos Promesas 1+ goals
70%
Burgos Promesas 2+ goals
34%
Burgos Promesas 3+ goals
12%
Cristo Atlético 1+ goals
66%
Cristo Atlético 2+ goals
30%
Cristo Atlético 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)
54%
Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burgos Promesas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.83 · 64 matches

Cristo Atlético away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burgos Promesas attack 1.45 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.20

Cristo Atlético attack 1.36 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Burgos Promesas scores more
39%
level
28%
Cristo Atlético scores more
33%

Burgos Promesas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Burgos Promesas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burgos Promesas 1 – 2 Cristo Atlético

Cristo Atlético beat Burgos Promesas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares 3 in Burgos.