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Cristo Atlético vs Atlético Mansillés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Cristo Atlético
Cristo Atlético
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Mansillés
Atlético Mansillés
Rubo Blanco 86'
J. Blanco 61', 29'
10/5/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 5Estadio La Nueva Balastera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Cristo Atlético49%
×Draw31%
Atlético Mansillés21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cristo Atlético
1.19
Atlético Mansillés
0.66

Cristo Atlético creates 80% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 35 away

creates per match

Cristo Atlético
1.38
Atlético Mansillés
0.63

allows per match

Cristo Atlético
0.69
Atlético Mansillés
1.00

finishing

Cristo Atlético+0.00on par
Atlético Mansillés+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cristo Atlético ↓

Atlético Mansillés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Cristo Atlético or draw
79%
Cristo Atlético or Atlético Mansillés
69%
Draw or Atlético Mansillés
51%

Winning margin

Cristo Atlético wins by 2+
22%
Atlético Mansillés wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cristo Atlético 1+ goals
70%
Cristo Atlético 2+ goals
33%
Cristo Atlético 3+ goals
12%
Atlético Mansillés 1+ goals
48%
Atlético Mansillés 2+ goals
14%
Atlético Mansillés 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)
70%
Atlético Mansillés (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cristo Atlético at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.69 · 80 matches

Atlético Mansillés away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cristo Atlético attack 1.38 + Atlético Mansillés defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Atlético Mansillés attack 0.63 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cristo Atlético scores more
49%
level
31%
Atlético Mansillés scores more
21%

Cristo Atlético at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cristo Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
J. Blanco
61'
J. Blanco
86'
Rubo Blanco
Cristo
Atlético
Álex Izquierdo
Manager: Álex Izquierdo
José Montaña
Manager: José Montaña

Match Recap: Cristo Atlético vs Atlético Mansillés

Atlético Mansillés beat Cristo Atlético 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 5, 2025.

Goals: J. Blanco (29', 61'), Rubo Blanco (86').

The match was played at Estadio La Nueva Balastera in Palencia.