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Atlético Mansillés vs Cristo Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Mansillés
Atlético Mansillés
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cristo Atlético
Cristo Atlético
4/17/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 33Campo de Fútbol de Mansilla de las Mulas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Atlético Mansillés35%
×Draw29%
Cristo Atlético36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Mansillés
1.12
Cristo Atlético
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 80 away

creates per match

Atlético Mansillés
1.29
Cristo Atlético
1.36

allows per match

Atlético Mansillés
0.89
Cristo Atlético
0.95

finishing

Atlético Mansillés+0.00on par
Cristo Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mansillés ↓

Cristo Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Mansillés or draw
64%
Atlético Mansillés or Cristo Atlético
71%
Draw or Cristo Atlético
65%

Winning margin

Atlético Mansillés wins by 2+
14%
Cristo Atlético wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atlético Mansillés 1+ goals
67%
Atlético Mansillés 2+ goals
31%
Atlético Mansillés 3+ goals
10%
Cristo Atlético 1+ goals
68%
Cristo Atlético 2+ goals
31%
Cristo Atlético 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mansillés (draw refunded)
50%
Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mansillés at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Cristo Atlético away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mansillés attack 1.29 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.12

Cristo Atlético attack 1.36 + Atlético Mansillés defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Atlético Mansillés scores more
35%
level
29%
Cristo Atlético scores more
36%

Cristo Atlético at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Cristo Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Mansillés vs Cristo Atlético

Atlético Mansillés and Cristo Atlético drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de Mansilla de las Mulas in Mansilla de las Mulas.