Cristo Atlético 1–0 Arandina: Result & Stats

Cristo Atlético

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arandina

11/1/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 9Estadio La Nueva Balastera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Cristo Atlético42%

×Draw29%

Arandina29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cristo AtléticoExpected goals in this matchArandina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.97

Cristo Atlético

1.21

Arandina

0.97

Cristo Atlético creates 25% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 94 away

1.38

creates per match

1.26

0.69

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Cristo Atlético

1.38

Arandina

1.26

allows per match

Cristo Atlético

0.69

Arandina

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cristo Atlético+0.00on par

Arandina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cristo Atlético ↓

Arandina →

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cristo Atlético or draw

71%

Cristo Atlético or Arandina

71%

Draw or Arandina

58%

Winning margin

Cristo Atlético wins by 2+

18%

Arandina wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cristo Atlético 1+ goals

70%

Cristo Atlético 2+ goals

34%

Cristo Atlético 3+ goals

12%

Arandina 1+ goals

62%

Arandina 2+ goals

25%

Arandina 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)

59%

Arandina (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cristo Atlético at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.69 · 80 matches

Arandina away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cristo Atlético attack 1.38 + Arandina defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Arandina attack 1.26 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cristo Atlético scores more

42%

level

29%

Arandina scores more

29%

Cristo Atlético at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cristo Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Cristo Atlético 1–0 Arandina

Cristo Atlético beat Arandina 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Nueva Balastera in Palencia.

Cristo Atlético vs Arandina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Cristo Atlético 1–0 Arandina