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Arandina vs Cristo Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Arandina
Arandina
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cristo Atlético
Cristo Atlético
10/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 9Estadio El Montecillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Arandina41%
×Draw28%
Cristo Atlético31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arandina
1.27
Cristo Atlético
1.08

Arandina creates 18% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 80 away

creates per match

Arandina
1.60
Cristo Atlético
1.36

allows per match

Arandina
0.80
Cristo Atlético
0.95

finishing

Arandina+0.00on par
Cristo Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arandina ↓

Cristo Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arandina or draw
69%
Arandina or Cristo Atlético
72%
Draw or Cristo Atlético
59%

Winning margin

Arandina wins by 2+
18%
Cristo Atlético wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Arandina 1+ goals
72%
Arandina 2+ goals
36%
Arandina 3+ goals
14%
Cristo Atlético 1+ goals
66%
Cristo Atlético 2+ goals
29%
Cristo Atlético 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Arandina (draw refunded)
56%
Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arandina at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 94 matches

Cristo Atlético away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arandina attack 1.60 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cristo Atlético attack 1.36 + Arandina defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Arandina scores more
41%
level
28%
Cristo Atlético scores more
31%

Arandina at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Arandina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arandina vs Cristo Atlético

Arandina beat Cristo Atlético 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Montecillo in Aranda de Duero.