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Criciuma vs Nautico Recife — Serie B 2026

Criciuma
Criciuma
Preview
19:00
Nautico Recife
Nautico Recife
7/26/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 20
Big match
52%
Criciuma
model favours
52%24%24%

Criciuma are unbeaten in 13 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Criciuma52%
×Draw24%
Nautico Recife24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Criciuma
1.71
Nautico Recife
1.09

Criciuma creates 57% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Criciuma
1.41
Nautico Recife
1.32

allows per match

Criciuma
0.87
Nautico Recife
2.01

finishing

Criciuma-0.03on par
Nautico Recife+0.68scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Nautico Recife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw
76%
Criciuma or Nautico Recife
76%
Draw or Nautico Recife
48%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+
28%
Nautico Recife wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals
82%
Criciuma 2+ goals
51%
Criciuma 3+ goals
24%
Nautico Recife 1+ goals
66%
Nautico Recife 2+ goals
30%
Nautico Recife 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)
68%
Nautico Recife (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.87 · 8 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.01 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.41 + Nautico Recife defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.71

Nautico Recife attack 1.32 + Criciuma defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Criciuma scores more
52%
level
24%
Nautico Recife scores more
24%

Criciuma at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Criciuma have won 6 in a row
  • 88% of Criciuma’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 94% of Criciuma’s matches
  • Nautico Recife score first in only 26% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 26% of Nautico Recife’s matches
  • Criciuma sit 1, Nautico Recife 19 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Criciuma
Defensively solid
Nautico Recife
Balanced
50%Possession56%
76%Pass accuracy80%
13.3Shots13.6
1.07xGBiggest gap1.47
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CriciumaNautico Recife

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

7
Criciuma
2
Draws
1
Nautico Recife
Avg goals: 1.5BTTS: 30%
1–02–11–10–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Criciuma
WWWWW
Recife
LLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Criciuma vs Nautico Recife — Match Preview

Criciuma face Nautico Recife on July 26, 2026 in this Serie B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.