Criciuma 1–0 Botafogo SP: Result & Stats | Serie B

Criciuma

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Botafogo SP

R. Otero 90'

4/10/2026

Serie B · Round 4Estádio Heriberto Hülse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Criciuma57%

×Draw25%

Botafogo SP19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CriciumaExpected goals in this matchBotafogo SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.80

Criciuma

1.61

Botafogo SP

0.80

Criciuma creates 101% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 40 away

1.50

creates per match

0.78

0.81

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Criciuma

1.50

Botafogo SP

0.78

allows per match

Criciuma

0.81

Botafogo SP

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Criciuma+0.00on par

Botafogo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Botafogo SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw

81%

Criciuma or Botafogo SP

75%

Draw or Botafogo SP

43%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+

31%

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals

80%

Criciuma 2+ goals

48%

Criciuma 3+ goals

22%

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

55%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

19%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)

75%

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.81 · 32 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.73 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.50 + Botafogo SP defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Botafogo SP attack 0.78 + Criciuma defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Criciuma scores more

57%

level

25%

Botafogo SP scores more

19%

Criciuma at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91

R. Otero

Criciuma · M

8.3

Match Events

43'

Patrick Brey

45+1'

Carlão

46'

Nicolas← Romarinho

46'

Leandro Maciel← Rafael Gava

49'

Ze Hugo← Hygor

57'

R. Otero← Waguininho

57'

Hiago Alves← Fellipe Mateus

58'

Willean LepoCard upgrade

60'

Willean Lepo

64'

Jean Irmer← Thiaguinho

66'

Jean Irmer

69'

Wallace← Carlao

70'

Jefferson Nem← Thiago Moraes

76'

Diego Goncalves← Gui Lobo

85'

Marco Antonio← Pedro Henrique

89'

90+8'

90+1'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CriciumaBotafogo

Overview

51%Possession49%

12Total Shots12

1.63Expected Goals (xG)0.65

9Corners6

15Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots12

3On Target1

6Off Target8

3Blocked3

8Inside Box5

4Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

347Total Passes334

255Accurate Passes240

73%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-0.59Goals Prevented-0.59

Discipline

15Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2