Botafogo SP 1–0 Criciuma: Result & Stats | Serie B

Botafogo SP

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Criciuma

Osman 75'

7/17/2023

Serie B · Round 18Estádio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Botafogo SP44%

×Draw31%

Criciuma25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botafogo SPExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.79

Botafogo SP

1.16

Criciuma

0.79

Botafogo SP creates 47% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.39

creates per match

0.70

0.88

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Botafogo SP

1.39

Criciuma

0.70

allows per match

Botafogo SP

0.88

Criciuma

0.93

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Botafogo SP+0.18scores more

Criciuma-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Botafogo SP or draw

75%

Botafogo SP or Criciuma

69%

Draw or Criciuma

56%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

19%

Criciuma wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

69%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

32%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

11%

Criciuma 1+ goals

55%

Criciuma 2+ goals

19%

Criciuma 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

64%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.88 · 7 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.93 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP attack 1.39 + Criciuma defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Criciuma attack 0.70 + Botafogo SP defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Botafogo SP scores more

44%

level

31%

Criciuma scores more

25%

Botafogo SP at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Botafogo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Luiz Henrique

Botafogo SP · M

7.9

Match Events

24'

28'

62'

68'

69'

69'

69'

75'

Welinton Torrão← Marquinhos Gabriel

75'

Tiago Marques← Felipe Vizeu

75'

Osman↳ Luiz Henrique

76'

Osman

85'

Gustavo Xuxa← Osman

85'

Pedro Rodrigues← Luiz Henrique

88'

Cristovam← Claudinho

89'

Diogo Silva← Lucas Cardoso

89'

Fernando Canesin← Fellipe Mateus

89'

Crystopher← Léo Costa

90+4'

Rômulo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotafogoCriciuma

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots9

1.18Expected Goals (xG)1.11

9Corners7

12Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots9

6On Target1

4Off Target6

3Blocked2

7Inside Box7

6Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

337Total Passes493

253Accurate Passes400

75%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls8

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides5