Criciuma 1–2 Avai: Result & Stats | Serie B

Criciuma

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Avai

Jhonata Robert 20'

Thayllon 88'

Gustavo Barreto 13'

6/27/2025

Serie B · Round 14Estádio Heriberto Hülse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Criciuma47%

×Draw26%

Avai27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CriciumaExpected goals in this matchAvai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.04

Criciuma

1.48

Avai

1.04

Criciuma creates 42% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 22 away

1.66

creates per match

1.02

1.05

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Criciuma

1.66

Avai

1.02

allows per match

Criciuma

1.05

Avai

1.31

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Criciuma-0.16scores less

Avai-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Avai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw

73%

Criciuma or Avai

74%

Draw or Avai

53%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+

24%

Avai wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals

77%

Criciuma 2+ goals

43%

Criciuma 3+ goals

19%

Avai 1+ goals

65%

Avai 2+ goals

28%

Avai 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)

64%

Avai (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.05 · 14 matches

Avai away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.66 + Avai defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Avai attack 1.02 + Criciuma defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Criciuma scores more

47%

level

26%

Avai scores more

27%

Criciuma at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Jhonata Robert

Criciuma · F

7.6

Match Events

13'

Gustavo Barreto↳ Marquinhos Gabriel

20'

Jhonata Robert↳ Luiz Henrique

34'

Barreto

62'

Felipinho← Luiz Henrique

62'

Jean Carlos← Jhonata Robert

68'

Everton Morelli← Guilherme Lobo

70'

JP← Gustavo Barreto

70'

Thayllon← Emerson Negueba

80'

Jonathan Costa

82'

Marcinho

85'

Hygor← Cleber

85'

Alef Manga← Andrey

88'

Thayllon

89'

Railan← Marcos Vinicius

90+1'

Joao Carlos← Diego Goncalves

90+1'

Sassa← Nicolas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CriciumaAvai

Overview

63%Possession37%

21Total Shots10

6Corners3

12Fouls12

Shots

21Total Shots10

5On Target5

10Off Target4

6Blocked1

7Inside Box5

14Outside Box5

Passing

63%Possession37%

477Total Passes283

395Accurate Passes192

83%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0

Serie B: Criciuma 1–2 Avai

Avai beat Criciuma 2-1 in Serie B on June 27, 2025.

Goals: Gustavo Barreto (13'), Jhonata Robert (20'), Thayllon (88').

Criciuma controlled possession (63%) and registered 21 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse in Criciúma, Santa Catarina.

Criciuma vs Avai — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Criciuma 1–2 Avai