Avai 1–2 Criciuma: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avai

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Criciuma

Paulo Vitor 49'

Fellipe Mateus 46'

R. Otero 39'

5/30/2026

Serie B · Round 11Estádio da Ressacada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Avai44%

×Draw29%

Criciuma27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvaiExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.92

Avai

1.25

Criciuma

0.92

Avai creates 36% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

1.34

creates per match

0.92

0.91

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Avai

1.34

Criciuma

0.92

allows per match

Avai

0.91

Criciuma

1.15

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Avai-0.10scores less

Criciuma-0.02on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Avai or draw

73%

Avai or Criciuma

71%

Draw or Criciuma

56%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+

20%

Criciuma wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals

71%

Avai 2+ goals

36%

Avai 3+ goals

13%

Criciuma 1+ goals

60%

Criciuma 2+ goals

23%

Criciuma 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)

62%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.91 · 21 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.34 + Criciuma defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Criciuma attack 0.92 + Avai defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Avai scores more

44%

level

29%

Criciuma scores more

27%

Avai at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Marcelo Hermes

Criciuma · M

8.2

Match Events

39'

R. Otero

46'

Fellipe Mateus

49'

Paulo Vitor↳ DG

55'

Wallison← DG

64'

Rómulo Otero

67'

Jean Irmer← Gui Lobo

67'

Joao Carlos← R. Otero

69'

Gabriel Pereira Simples

76'

Diego Goncalves← Eduardo

76'

Nicolas← Waguininho

79'

Hyan← Wenderson

79'

Isaias← Walace Franca

79'

Jamerson← Sorriso

81'

João Carlos

83'

Wesley Gasolina

90+2'

C. Brazil←

90+5'

Thiaguinho←

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvaiCriciuma

Overview

57%Possession43%

11Total Shots17

0.55Expected Goals (xG)1.11

3Corners9

16Fouls25

Shots

11Total Shots17

3On Target3

5Off Target7

3Blocked7

7Inside Box10

4Outside Box7

Passing

57%Possession43%

371Total Passes265

295Accurate Passes193

80%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-0.12Goals Prevented-0.12

Discipline

16Fouls25

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

Serie B: Avai 1–2 Criciuma

Criciuma beat Avai 2-1 in Serie B on May 30, 2026.

Goals: R. Otero (39'), Fellipe Mateus (46'), Paulo Vitor (49').

Avai controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estádio da Ressacada in Florianópolis.

Avai vs Criciuma — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Avai 1–2 Criciuma