Criciuma 1–1 Athletic Club: Result & Stats

Criciuma

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Athletic Club

Jhonata Robert 61' (pen)

R. Tavares 2'

4/2/2026

Serie B · Round 2Estádio Heriberto Hülse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Criciuma50%

×Draw26%

Athletic Club23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CriciumaExpected goals in this matchAthletic Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.92

Criciuma

1.48

Athletic Club

0.92

Criciuma creates 61% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.51

creates per match

0.99

0.84

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Criciuma

1.51

Athletic Club

0.99

allows per match

Criciuma

0.84

Athletic Club

1.45

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Criciuma-0.24scores less

Athletic Club+0.09on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Athletic Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw

77%

Criciuma or Athletic Club

74%

Draw or Athletic Club

50%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+

25%

Athletic Club wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals

77%

Criciuma 2+ goals

43%

Criciuma 3+ goals

19%

Athletic Club 1+ goals

60%

Athletic Club 2+ goals

23%

Athletic Club 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)

68%

Athletic Club (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.84 · 11 matches

Athletic Club away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.45 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.51 + Athletic Club defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Athletic Club attack 0.99 + Criciuma defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Criciuma scores more

50%

level

26%

Athletic Club scores more

23%

Criciuma at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

Hiago Alves

Criciuma · M

8.3

Match Events

2'

11'

14'

17'

23'

30'

32'

Hiago Alves← Bruno Alves

36'

D. Vera

40'

Nicolas

43'

D. Vera

46'

Marcinho← Eduardo

46'

Joao Miguel← Jota

46'

Gabriel Indio← Ruan Assis

58'

Kauan Rodrigues← G. Cabezas

61'

Jhonata RobertPenalty

68'

Hiago Alves

68'

Romarinho← R. Otero

79'

Joao Carlos← Jhonata Robert

79'

Thiaguinho← Fellipe Mateus

88'

Pedro Oliveira← Ian Luccas

90+5'

Gabriel Moyses← R. Tavares

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CriciumaAthletic

Overview

71%Possession29%

33Total Shots7

2.77Expected Goals (xG)0.49

9Corners2

10Fouls21

Shots

33Total Shots7

7On Target2

16Off Target4

10Blocked1

23Inside Box5

10Outside Box2

Passing

71%Possession29%

502Total Passes209

456Accurate Passes131

91%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

1.19Goals Prevented1.19

Discipline

10Fouls21

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0