Athletic Club 1–1 Criciuma: Result & Stats

Athletic Club

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Criciuma

Neto Costa 60'

Diego Goncalves 4'

8/19/2025

Serie B · Round 22Estádio Joaquim Portugal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Athletic Club42%

×Draw30%

Criciuma28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic ClubExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.91

Athletic Club

1.17

Criciuma

0.91

Athletic Club creates 29% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.18

creates per match

0.87

0.95

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Athletic Club

1.18

Criciuma

0.87

allows per match

Athletic Club

0.95

Criciuma

1.16

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Athletic Club-0.10scores less

Criciuma-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Athletic Club or draw

72%

Athletic Club or Criciuma

70%

Draw or Criciuma

58%

Winning margin

Athletic Club wins by 2+

18%

Criciuma wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Athletic Club 1+ goals

69%

Athletic Club 2+ goals

33%

Athletic Club 3+ goals

11%

Criciuma 1+ goals

60%

Criciuma 2+ goals

23%

Criciuma 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club (draw refunded)

60%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.95 · 12 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.16 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club attack 1.18 + Criciuma defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Criciuma attack 0.87 + Athletic Club defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Athletic Club scores more

42%

level

30%

Criciuma scores more

28%

Athletic Club at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Athletic Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

Max

Athletic Club · M

7.9

Match Events

4'

Diego Goncalves

8'

Matheus Trindade

15'

Yan Souto← Nicolas

30'

David Braga← F. Martinez

40'

Luiz Henrique

43'

Marcelo Ajul

45+3'

Francisco Geraldes

46'

Neto Costa← Marcelo Ajul

60'

Neto Costa↳ R. Tavares

63'

A. Da Cruz← Chico Geraldes

66'

Alessio Da Cruz

71'

B. Borasi← Luiz Henrique

71'

Thales← Diego Goncalves

82'

Wesley Gasolina← Max

83'

Yuri← Douglas Pele

88'

Leo Mana← Felipinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AthleticCriciuma

Overview

75%Possession25%

21Total Shots9

2.13Expected Goals (xG)1.49

8Corners3

7Fouls9

Shots

21Total Shots9

5On Target3

8Off Target4

8Blocked2

15Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

75%Possession25%

551Total Passes199

476Accurate Passes127

86%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides3