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Crewe vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
Preview
18:45
Walsall
Walsall
9/1/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 4Alexandra Stadium
Big match
46%
Walsall
model favours
31%23%46%

Crewe score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Crewe31%
×Draw23%
Walsall46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.41
Walsall
1.75

Walsall creates 24% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Walsall
1.85

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Walsall
1.29

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Walsall-0.03on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
54%
Crewe or Walsall
77%
Draw or Walsall
69%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
14%
Walsall wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
76%
Crewe 2+ goals
41%
Crewe 3+ goals
17%
Walsall 1+ goals
83%
Walsall 2+ goals
52%
Walsall 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
41%
Walsall (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Walsall defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

Walsall attack 1.85 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Crewe scores more
31%
level
23%
Walsall scores more
46%

Walsall at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Crewe
Balanced
Walsall
Direct / counter-attacking
50%PossessionBiggest gap44%
70%Pass accuracy64%
11.3Shots12.1
1.44xG1.47
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CreweWalsall

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Crewe
3
Draws
4
Walsall
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 30%
0–30–10–11–10–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Crewe
WDWD
Walsall
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crewe vs Walsall — Match Preview

Crewe face Walsall on September 1, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Crewe host Walsall at Alexandra Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.