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Crewe vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Walsall
Walsall
C. Long 25'
R. McDonald 2'
4/15/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 42Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Crewe31%
×Draw24%
Walsall46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.36
Walsall
1.71

Walsall creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Walsall
1.78

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Walsall
1.20

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
54%
Crewe or Walsall
76%
Draw or Walsall
69%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
13%
Walsall wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
74%
Crewe 2+ goals
39%
Crewe 3+ goals
16%
Walsall 1+ goals
82%
Walsall 2+ goals
51%
Walsall 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
40%
Walsall (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

Walsall attack 1.78 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Crewe scores more
31%
level
24%
Walsall scores more
46%

Walsall at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
R. McDonaldCreweCrewe · D
7.7

Match Events

2'
R. McDonald↳ C. Ainley
25'
C. Long
28'
J. Labadie← L. Kinsella
28'
J. Riley← J. Low
49'
Joss Labadie
50'
L. Brook← C. Long
54'
T. Uwakwe← C. Ainley
61'
Joss Labadie
61'
Joss Labadie
65'
J. Maddox← C. Wilkinson
67'
Kelvin Mellor
72'
C. Baker-Richardson← E. Nevitt
73'
S. Robertson← K. Mellor
73'
C. Colkett← C. Finney
79'
Rod McDonald
82'
Tom Knowles
88'
R. Maher← J. Matt
90'
Oisin McEntee

Possession

49%Crewe

Shots

12Crewe

Pass accuracy

50%Crewe

Statistics

CreweWalsall
Overview
49%Possession51%
12Total Shots9
7Corners3
13Fouls17
Shots
12Total Shots9
4On Target0
5Off Target5
3Blocked4
7Inside Box5
5Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
320Total Passes342
222Accurate Passes238
69%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls17
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Crewe 2 – 0 Walsall

Crewe beat Walsall 2-0 in League Two on April 15, 2023.

Goals: R. McDonald (2'), C. Long (25').

Walsall controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.