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Crewe vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
Preview
19:45
Tranmere
Tranmere
12/29/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 22Alexandra Stadium
Big match
39%
Crewe
model favours
39%25%36%

Crewe score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Crewe39%
×Draw25%
Tranmere36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.46
Tranmere
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Tranmere
1.18

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Tranmere
1.39

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Tranmere-0.18scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
64%
Crewe or Tranmere
75%
Draw or Tranmere
61%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
18%
Tranmere wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
77%
Crewe 2+ goals
43%
Crewe 3+ goals
18%
Tranmere 1+ goals
76%
Tranmere 2+ goals
41%
Tranmere 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
51%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.39 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Tranmere defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.46

Tranmere attack 1.18 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Crewe scores more
39%
level
25%
Tranmere scores more
36%

Crewe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Crewe sit 11, Tranmere 21 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Crewe
Balanced
Tranmere
Balanced
50%Possession50%
70%Pass accuracy67%
11.4Shots12.0
1.44xGBiggest gap1.13
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CreweTranmere

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

5
Crewe
1
Draws
2
Tranmere
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 38%
2–14–10–23–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Crewe
WDWD
Tranmere
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Crewe host Tranmere

December 29, 2026: Crewe take on Tranmere in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Crewe host Tranmere at Alexandra Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.