Crewe 2–0 Tranmere: Result & Stats | League Two

Crewe

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tranmere

C. Long 52'

M. Demetriou 11'

10/14/2023

League Two · Round 13Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Crewe39%

×Draw25%

Tranmere36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.40

Crewe

1.48

Tranmere

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.53

creates per match

1.15

1.64

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Crewe

1.53

Tranmere

1.15

allows per match

Crewe

1.64

Tranmere

1.42

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par

Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

64%

Crewe or Tranmere

75%

Draw or Tranmere

61%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

19%

Tranmere wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

77%

Crewe 2+ goals

43%

Crewe 3+ goals

19%

Tranmere 1+ goals

75%

Tranmere 2+ goals

41%

Tranmere 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

52%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Crewe scores more

39%

level

25%

Tranmere scores more

36%

Crewe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Powell

Crewe · M

8.2

Match Events

11'

M. Demetriou↳ J. Powell

37'

48'

50'

52'

67'

C. Finney← R. Adebisi

67'

K. Dennis← C. Jolley

71'

E. Nevitt← J. White

72'

A. Rowe← C. Long

77'

85'

90+3'

90+12'

90+6'

90+5'

90+12'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CreweTranmere

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots13

9Corners4

7Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots13

4On Target3

7Off Target7

5Blocked3

10Inside Box7

6Outside Box6

Passing

56%Possession44%

475Total Passes371

381Accurate Passes253

80%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards2

3Offsides3