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Crewe vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tranmere
Tranmere
C. Colkett 34'
1/1/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 25Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Crewe39%
×Draw25%
Tranmere36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.48
Tranmere
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Tranmere
1.15

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Tranmere
1.42

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
64%
Crewe or Tranmere
75%
Draw or Tranmere
61%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
19%
Tranmere wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
77%
Crewe 2+ goals
43%
Crewe 3+ goals
19%
Tranmere 1+ goals
75%
Tranmere 2+ goals
41%
Tranmere 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
52%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Crewe scores more
39%
level
25%
Tranmere scores more
36%

Crewe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
T. UwakweCreweCrewe · M
7.7

Match Events

24'
Daniel Agyei
34'
C. Colkett
55'
J. Tabiner← C. Colkett
58'
J. Mumbongo← E. Nevitt
72'
Tom Davies
78'
J. Nolan← J. Hawkes
80'
E. King← L. Brook

Possession

37%Crewe

Shots

11Crewe

Pass accuracy

41%Crewe

Statistics

CreweTranmere
Overview
37%Possession63%
11Total Shots22
5Corners13
7Fouls7
Shots
11Total Shots22
3On Target3
4Off Target10
4Blocked9
5Inside Box14
6Outside Box8
Passing
37%Possession63%
266Total Passes438
132Accurate Passes311
50%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls7
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Crewe vs Tranmere

Crewe beat Tranmere 1-0 in League Two on January 1, 2023.

Goals: C. Colkett (34').

Tranmere controlled possession (63%) and registered 22 shots to 11.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.