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Crewe vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
Preview
15:00
Salford City
Salford City
12/19/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 20Alexandra Stadium
Big match
39%
Salford City
model favours
38%24%39%

Crewe score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Crewe38%
×Draw24%
Salford City39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.56
Salford City
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Salford City
1.55

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Salford City
1.58

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
61%
Crewe or Salford City
76%
Draw or Salford City
62%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
18%
Salford City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
79%
Crewe 2+ goals
46%
Crewe 3+ goals
21%
Salford City 1+ goals
80%
Salford City 2+ goals
47%
Salford City 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
49%
Salford City (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Salford City attack 1.55 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Crewe scores more
38%
level
24%
Salford City scores more
39%

Salford City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Salford City score first in only 33% of matches
  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.9 goals
  • Salford City fall short of their xG (1.3 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Crewe
Balanced
Salford City
Attack-heavy
50%Possession52%
70%Pass accuracy67%
11.2Shots12.9
1.44xGBiggest gap1.73
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CreweSalford City

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Crewe
2
Draws
4
Salford City
Avg goals: 3.9BTTS: 80%
1–03–11–11–12–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Crewe
WDWD
City
WLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Crewe host Salford City

December 19, 2026: Crewe take on Salford City in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Crewe host Salford City at Alexandra Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.