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Crewe vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Salford City
Salford City
D. Agyei 90', 31' (pen)
C. O'Riordan 87'
J. Tabiner 40'
S. Mallan 85'
C. Hendry 45'
L. Barry 19'
3/10/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 36Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Crewe38%
×Draw24%
Salford City39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.56
Salford City
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Salford City
1.55

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Salford City
1.58

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
61%
Crewe or Salford City
76%
Draw or Salford City
62%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
18%
Salford City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
79%
Crewe 2+ goals
46%
Crewe 3+ goals
21%
Salford City 1+ goals
80%
Salford City 2+ goals
47%
Salford City 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
49%
Salford City (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Salford City attack 1.55 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Crewe scores more
38%
level
24%
Salford City scores more
39%

Salford City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
D. AgyeiCreweCrewe · M
7.7

Match Events

19'
L. Barry↳ L. Bolton
31'
D. AgyeiPenalty
40'
J. Tabiner
45'
C. Hendry↳ E. Galbraith
58'
S. Mallan← M. Lund
70'
M. Smith← E. Watt
70'
C. Morton← L. Barry
76'
C. Colkett← C. Ainley
85'
S. Mallan↳ L. Bolton
87'
C. Baker-Richardson← J. Tabiner
87'
C. Thomas← T. Uwakwe
87'
C. O'Riordan↳ E. Nevitt
90+7'
Ryan Finnigan
90'
Daniel Agyei
90'
D. Agyei

Possession

42%Crewe

Shots

12Crewe

Pass accuracy

48%Crewe

Statistics

CreweSalford
Overview
42%Possession58%
12Total Shots16
2Corners4
11Fouls7
Shots
12Total Shots16
7On Target6
3Off Target6
2Blocked4
8Inside Box9
4Outside Box7
Passing
42%Possession58%
384Total Passes525
293Accurate Passes435
76%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls7
2Yellow Cards0
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Crewe vs Salford City

Crewe beat Salford City 4-3 in League Two on March 10, 2023.

Goals: L. Barry (19'), D. Agyei (31' pen, 90'), J. Tabiner (40'), C. Hendry (45'), S. Mallan (85'), C. O'Riordan (87').

Salford City controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.