Crewe 1–2 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Crewe

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Rotherham

D. Agyei 40'

G. Kelly 39'

C. Washington 1'

7/23/2022

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Crewe23%

×Draw21%

Rotherham56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

2.13

Crewe

1.30

Rotherham

2.13

Rotherham creates 64% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

1.73

creates per match

2.80

1.45

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Crewe

1.73

Rotherham

2.80

allows per match

Crewe

1.45

Rotherham

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par

Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

44%

Crewe or Rotherham

79%

Draw or Rotherham

77%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

9%

Rotherham wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

73%

Crewe 2+ goals

37%

Crewe 3+ goals

14%

Rotherham 1+ goals

88%

Rotherham 2+ goals

63%

Rotherham 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

29%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Rotherham away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.73 + Rotherham defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.30

Rotherham attack 2.80 + Crewe defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Crewe scores more

23%

level

21%

Rotherham scores more

56%

Rotherham at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

C. Washington

39'

G. Kelly

40'

D. Agyei

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff