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Crewe vs Rotherham — League #46 2026

Crewe
Crewe
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Rotherham
Rotherham
S. Robertson 71'
M. Mandron 11'
F. Ladapo 90+4'
J. Ogunfaolu-Kayode 82'
M. Smith 57'
K. Sadlier 41'
1/4/2022League #46League #46 · 3rd RoundMornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Crewe37%
×Draw20%
Rotherham44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
2.13
Rotherham
2.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Crewe
3.00
Rotherham
2.00

allows per match

Crewe
2.67
Rotherham
1.25

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
56%
Crewe or Rotherham
80%
Draw or Rotherham
63%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
20%
Rotherham wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
88%
Crewe 2+ goals
63%
Crewe 3+ goals
35%
Rotherham 1+ goals
90%
Rotherham 2+ goals
67%
Rotherham 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
46%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Rotherham away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 3.00 + Rotherham defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Rotherham attack 2.00 + Crewe defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Crewe scores more
37%
level
20%
Rotherham scores more
44%

Rotherham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
K. SadlierRotherhamRotherham · F
8.2

Match Events

11'
M. Mandron↳ S. Robertson
29'
Wes Harding
41'
K. Sadlier↳ M. Smith
57'
M. Smith↳ W. Grigg
62'
J. Ogunfaolu-Kayode← M. Smith
68'
L. Murphy← O. Finney
69'
J. Tabiner← K. Ramsay
71'
S. Ferguson← J. Lindsay
71'
O. Rathbone← T. Bola
71'
S. Robertson↳ L. Murphy
78'
C. Ogbene← J. Mattock
78'
F. Ladapo← W. Grigg
82'
J. Ogunfaolu-Kayode↳ C. Ogbene
85'
C. Salisbury← R. Griffiths
85'
C. Porter← M. Mandron
90+4'
F. Ladapo↳ S. Ferguson

Possession

46%Crewe

Shots

6Crewe

Pass accuracy

47%Crewe

Statistics

CreweRotherham
Overview
46%Possession54%
6Total Shots17
2Corners5
6Fouls17
Shots
6Total Shots17
4On Target10
1Off Target4
1Blocked3
3Inside Box9
3Outside Box8
Passing
46%Possession54%
391Total Passes445
265Accurate Passes337
68%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
6Fouls17
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Crewe vs Rotherham

Rotherham beat Crewe 4-2 in League #46 on January 4, 2022.

Goals: M. Mandron (11'), K. Sadlier (41'), M. Smith (57'), S. Robertson (71'), J. Ogunfaolu-Kayode (82'), F. Ladapo (90+4').

Rotherham controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.