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Crewe vs Morecambe — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Morecambe
Morecambe
O. Finney 90+1', 22'
R. Wintle 58'
C. Kirk 38'
T. Lowery 31'
11/23/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 19Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Crewe48%
×Draw24%
Morecambe27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.65
Morecambe
1.17

Crewe creates 41% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 93 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.56
Morecambe
1.17

allows per match

Crewe
1.18
Morecambe
1.73

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Morecambe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
73%
Crewe or Morecambe
76%
Draw or Morecambe
52%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
26%
Morecambe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
81%
Crewe 2+ goals
49%
Crewe 3+ goals
23%
Morecambe 1+ goals
69%
Morecambe 2+ goals
33%
Morecambe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
64%
Morecambe (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.56 + Morecambe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.65

Morecambe attack 1.17 + Crewe defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Crewe scores more
48%
level
24%
Morecambe scores more
27%

Crewe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
R. WintleCreweCrewe · M
9.2

Match Events

22'
O. Finney↳ R. Wintle
31'
T. Lowery
34'
Samuel Lavelle
38'
C. Kirk↳ N. Hunt
46'
J. O'Sullivan← A. Kenyon
46'
J. Cranston← L. Alessandra
58'
R. Wintle↳ P. Ng
60'
J. Jones← T. Lowery
61'
C. Ainley← O. Dale
61'
C. Anene← C. Porter
75'
K. Ellison← A. Wildig
90+1'
O. Finney

Possession

70%Crewe

Shots

33Crewe

Pass accuracy

55%Crewe

Statistics

CreweMorecambe
Overview
70%Possession30%
33Total Shots10
14Corners1
8Fouls8
Shots
33Total Shots10
9On Target1
9Off Target5
15Blocked4
21Inside Box1
12Outside Box9
Passing
70%Possession30%
584Total Passes249
508Accurate Passes177
87%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls8
0Red Cards1
5Offsides0

League Two: Crewe 5–0 Morecambe

Crewe beat Morecambe 5-0 in League Two on November 23, 2019.

Goals: O. Finney (22', 90+1'), T. Lowery (31'), C. Kirk (38'), R. Wintle (58').

Crewe controlled possession (70%) and registered 33 shots to 10.

The match was played at Alexandra Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.