Crewe 3–1 Forest Green: Result & Stats | League Two

Crewe

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Forest Green

J. Bowery 61', 44'

C. Kirk 59'

D. Grubb 64'

3/20/2018

League Two · Round 36Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Crewe40%

×Draw26%

Forest Green34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchForest Green

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.27

Crewe

1.41

Forest Green

1.27

Crewe creates 11% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 90 away

1.56

creates per match

1.36

1.18

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Crewe

1.56

Forest Green

1.36

allows per match

Crewe

1.18

Forest Green

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par

Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Forest Green →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

66%

Crewe or Forest Green

74%

Draw or Forest Green

60%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

19%

Forest Green wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

76%

Crewe 2+ goals

41%

Crewe 3+ goals

17%

Forest Green 1+ goals

72%

Forest Green 2+ goals

36%

Forest Green 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

54%

Forest Green (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.56 + Forest Green defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.41

Forest Green attack 1.36 + Crewe defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crewe scores more

40%

level

26%

Forest Green scores more

34%

Crewe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Harry Pickering

44'

J. Bowery↳ H. Pickering

46'

T. Campbell← C. Clements

46'

59'

61'

64'

72'

77'

C. Dagnall← H. McKirdy

78'

Tom Lowery

80'

R. Brown← F. Rawson

90'

D. Barlaser← C. Kirk

Crewe

Forest

30

3

5

2

16

20

▼

Rawson

34

Osbourne

22

▼

Clements

8

⚽

Grubb

15

▼

26

1

12

2

18

A

Pickering

30

Green

5

Ray

39

▼

McKirdy

14

A

Ainley

20

⚽

▼

Kirk

16

Lowery

10

⚽2

Bowery

Manager: D. Artell

77'▲C. Dagnall←▼H. McKirdy

90'▲D. Barlaser←▼C. Kirk

Crewe substitutes

9Dagnall40Barlaser6Raynes8Jones13Richards21Finney24Reilly

Manager: M. Cooper

46'▲T. Campbell←▼C. Clements

46'▲A. Bray←▼C. Cooper

80'▲R. Brown←▼F. Rawson

Forest Green substitutes

25Campbell31Bray10Brown1Collins12Simpson32Hollis