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Crewe vs Forest Green — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Forest Green
Forest Green
4/1/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 42Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Crewe40%
×Draw26%
Forest Green35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.41
Forest Green
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 113 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.59
Forest Green
1.42

allows per match

Crewe
1.19
Forest Green
1.22

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Forest Green →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
65%
Crewe or Forest Green
74%
Draw or Forest Green
60%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
19%
Forest Green wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
76%
Crewe 2+ goals
41%
Crewe 3+ goals
17%
Forest Green 1+ goals
73%
Forest Green 2+ goals
37%
Forest Green 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
53%
Forest Green (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.19 · 135 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.22 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.59 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.41

Forest Green attack 1.42 + Crewe defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crewe scores more
40%
level
26%
Forest Green scores more
35%

Crewe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Crewe 0–3 Forest Green

Forest Green beat Crewe 3-0 in League Two on April 1, 2024.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.