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Crewe vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
Preview
15:00
Colchester
Colchester
2/20/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 32Alexandra Stadium
Big match
45%
Crewe
model favours
45%24%31%

Crewe score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Crewe45%
×Draw24%
Colchester31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.69
Colchester
1.38

Crewe creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Colchester
1.11

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Colchester
1.85

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Colchester+0.20scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
69%
Crewe or Colchester
76%
Draw or Colchester
55%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
23%
Colchester wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
82%
Crewe 2+ goals
50%
Crewe 3+ goals
24%
Colchester 1+ goals
75%
Colchester 2+ goals
40%
Colchester 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
59%
Colchester (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Colchester defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.69

Colchester attack 1.11 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Crewe scores more
45%
level
24%
Colchester scores more
31%

Crewe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Their last 9 meetings averaged just 1.4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Crewe
Balanced
Colchester
Balanced
50%Possession50%
70%Pass accuracy71%
11.3Shots11.2
1.44xGBiggest gap1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CreweColchester

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

3
Crewe
5
Draws
1
Colchester
Avg goals: 1.4BTTS: 33%
1–01–10–00–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Crewe
WDWD
Colchester
LWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Crewe vs Colchester — Match Preview

Crewe face Colchester on February 20, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Crewe host Colchester at Alexandra Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.