Crewe 0–0 Colchester: Result & Stats | League Two

Crewe

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Colchester

12/20/2024

League Two · Round 21Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Crewe45%

×Draw24%

Colchester31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.38

Crewe

1.69

Colchester

1.38

Crewe creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.53

creates per match

1.11

1.64

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Crewe

1.53

Colchester

1.11

allows per match

Crewe

1.64

Colchester

1.85

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par

Colchester+0.20scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

69%

Crewe or Colchester

76%

Draw or Colchester

55%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

23%

Colchester wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

82%

Crewe 2+ goals

50%

Crewe 3+ goals

24%

Colchester 1+ goals

75%

Colchester 2+ goals

40%

Colchester 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

59%

Colchester (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Colchester defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.69

Colchester attack 1.11 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Crewe scores more

45%

level

24%

Colchester scores more

31%

Crewe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

J. Connolly

Crewe · D

7.5

Match Events

7'

Zac Williams

61'

J. Payne← S. Tovide

68'

O. Bogle← M. Sanders

78'

J. Gordon← H. Anderson

78'

O. Thorn← E. Bishop

84'

C. Long← J. Lankester

84'

J. Powell← M. Holíček

87'

Ellis Iandolo

89'

T. Hopper← L. Taylor

90'

B. Goodliffe← O. Edwards

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CreweColchester

Overview

49%Possession51%

7Total Shots10

5Corners4

12Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots10

0On Target2

4Off Target4

3Blocked4

3Inside Box3

4Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

338Total Passes371

244Accurate Passes273

72%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls15

1Yellow Cards1

4Offsides3