Colchester 1–1 Crewe: Result & Stats | League Two

Colchester

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Crewe

N. Chilvers 35'

E. Nevitt 90+2'

4/27/2024

League Two · Round 46JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Colchester43%

×Draw26%

Crewe31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchCrewe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.15

Colchester

1.42

Crewe

1.15

Colchester creates 23% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

1.41

creates per match

1.30

0.99

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Colchester

1.41

Crewe

1.30

allows per match

Colchester

0.99

Crewe

1.44

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Colchester+0.16scores more

Crewe-0.05on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Crewe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

69%

Colchester or Crewe

74%

Draw or Crewe

57%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

21%

Crewe wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

76%

Colchester 2+ goals

41%

Colchester 3+ goals

17%

Crewe 1+ goals

68%

Crewe 2+ goals

32%

Crewe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

59%

Crewe (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.99 · 14 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.41 + Crewe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Crewe attack 1.30 + Colchester defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Colchester scores more

43%

level

26%

Crewe scores more

31%

Colchester at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

N. Chilvers

Colchester · M

8.0

Match Events

35'

N. Chilvers↳ E. Iandolo

46'

A. Rowe← C. Long

46'

J. Austerfield← M. Holíček

49'

Aaron Rowe

62'

Fiacre Kelleher

68'

R. Harbottle← J. Akinde

71'

C. Baker-Richardson← S. Tracey

81'

C. Kirk← R. Cooney

90+2'

E. Nevitt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterCrewe

Overview

42%Possession58%

15Total Shots9

2Corners3

7Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots9

5On Target5

4Off Target2

6Blocked2

8Inside Box7

7Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

307Total Passes411

200Accurate Passes308

65%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2