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Crewe vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Colchester
Colchester
C. Long 8' (pen), 3'
S. Tovide 53'
9/23/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 9Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Crewe43%
×Draw24%
Colchester33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.67
Colchester
1.42

Crewe creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Colchester
1.21

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Colchester
1.81

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Colchester+0.15scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
67%
Crewe or Colchester
76%
Draw or Colchester
57%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
22%
Colchester wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
81%
Crewe 2+ goals
50%
Crewe 3+ goals
23%
Colchester 1+ goals
76%
Colchester 2+ goals
41%
Colchester 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
57%
Colchester (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Colchester defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67

Colchester attack 1.21 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Crewe scores more
43%
level
24%
Colchester scores more
33%

Crewe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
N. ChilversColchesterColchester · F
8.2

Match Events

3'
C. Long↳ M. Demetriou
8'
C. LongPenalty
53'
S. Tovide↳ J. Taylor
57'
M. Holíček← J. White
57'
C. Finney← S. Tracey
74'
O. Lunt← J. Powell
74'
J. Mingi← C. McGeehan
75'
E. Nevitt← C. Long
83'
B. Ihionvien← A. Kazeem
90+3'
Mickey Demetriou

Possession

40%Crewe

Shots

10Crewe

Pass accuracy

46%Crewe

Statistics

CreweColchester
Overview
40%Possession60%
10Total Shots21
6Corners10
15Fouls11
Shots
10Total Shots21
3On Target6
4Off Target7
3Blocked8
6Inside Box10
4Outside Box11
Passing
40%Possession60%
313Total Passes456
222Accurate Passes380
71%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls11
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides0

League Two: Crewe 2–1 Colchester

Crewe beat Colchester 2-1 in League Two on September 23, 2023.

Goals: C. Long (3', 8' pen), S. Tovide (53').

Colchester controlled possession (60%) and registered 21 shots to 10.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.