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Crewe vs Chesterfield — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
Preview
15:00
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
1/23/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 27Alexandra Stadium
Big match
40%
Crewe
model favours
40%24%35%

Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Crewe40%
×Draw24%
Chesterfield35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.55
Chesterfield
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Chesterfield
1.22

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Chesterfield
1.57

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Chesterfield+0.09on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Chesterfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
65%
Crewe or Chesterfield
76%
Draw or Chesterfield
60%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
20%
Chesterfield wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
79%
Crewe 2+ goals
46%
Crewe 3+ goals
20%
Chesterfield 1+ goals
76%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
42%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
53%
Chesterfield (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.57 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Chesterfield defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.55

Chesterfield attack 1.22 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crewe scores more
40%
level
24%
Chesterfield scores more
35%

Crewe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Crewe score first in only 19% of matches
  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Crewe
Balanced
Chesterfield
Possession-dominant
50%PossessionBiggest gap60%
70%Pass accuracy78%
11.3Shots12.1
1.44xG1.38
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CreweChesterfield

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Crewe
1
Draws
2
Chesterfield
Avg goals: 5BTTS: 60%
0–23–37–13–10–5

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Crewe
WDWD
Chesterfield
LDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Crewe host Chesterfield

January 23, 2027: Crewe take on Chesterfield in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Crewe host Chesterfield at Alexandra Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.