Chesterfield 2–0 Crewe: Result & Stats | League Two

Chesterfield

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Crewe

L. Bonis 68', 36'

4/25/2026

League Two · Round 45SMH Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Chesterfield43%

×Draw25%

Crewe33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchCrewe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.34

Chesterfield

1.56

Crewe

1.34

Chesterfield creates 16% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.69

creates per match

1.30

1.38

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Chesterfield

1.69

Crewe

1.30

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.38

Crewe

1.44

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Chesterfield-0.19scores less

Crewe-0.05on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Crewe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

67%

Chesterfield or Crewe

75%

Draw or Crewe

57%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

21%

Crewe wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

79%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

46%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

21%

Crewe 1+ goals

74%

Crewe 2+ goals

39%

Crewe 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

56%

Crewe (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.69 + Crewe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.56

Crewe attack 1.30 + Chesterfield defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chesterfield scores more

43%

level

25%

Crewe scores more

33%

Chesterfield at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Mandeville

Chesterfield · M

8.3

Match Events

36'

L. Bonis↳ D. Markanday

42'

Armando Dobra

45'

Sammy Braybrooke

46'

A. Thibaut← C. Thomas

62'

Alfie Pond

64'

L. Moore← T. O'Reilly

68'

L. Bonis↳ L. Mandeville

72'

S. Tracey← E. Tezgel

72'

S. Dancey← M. Demetriou

73'

T. Naylor← L. Mandeville

78'

C. Finney← R. Hutchinson

81'

W. Grigg← L. Bonis

82'

J. Donacien← L. Gordon

82'

J. Berry-McNally← A. Dobra

87'

J. Fleck← S. Braybrooke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChesterfieldCrewe

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots6

1.83Expected Goals (xG)0.45

0Corners3

11Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots6

6On Target1

5Off Target4

3Blocked1

8Inside Box5

6Outside Box1

Passing

52%Possession48%

418Total Passes378

326Accurate Passes283

78%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2