Chesterfield 1–3 Crewe: Result & Stats | League Two

Chesterfield

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Crewe

D. Duffy 87'

T. Lowery 90+3'

M. Conway 22'

S. Tracey 11'

3/1/2025

League Two · Round 34SMH Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Chesterfield41%

×Draw25%

Crewe33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchCrewe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.32

Chesterfield

1.50

Crewe

1.32

Chesterfield creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

1.57

creates per match

1.30

1.34

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Chesterfield

1.57

Crewe

1.30

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.34

Crewe

1.44

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Chesterfield-0.21scores less

Crewe-0.05on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Crewe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

67%

Chesterfield or Crewe

75%

Draw or Crewe

59%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

20%

Crewe wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

78%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

44%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

19%

Crewe 1+ goals

73%

Crewe 2+ goals

38%

Crewe 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

55%

Crewe (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.34 · 11 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.57 + Crewe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Crewe attack 1.30 + Chesterfield defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chesterfield scores more

41%

level

25%

Crewe scores more

33%

Chesterfield at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

J. Sparkes

Chesterfield · D

7.7

Match Events

11'

S. Tracey

22'

M. Conway

40'

Paddy Madden

62'

L. Mandeville← J. Donacien

69'

O. Banks← P. Madden

69'

D. Duffy← M. Olakigbe

69'

J. Fleck← J. Metcalfe

71'

M. Sanders← J. Powell

72'

O. Bogle← S. Tracey

77'

M. Jacobs← D. Oldaker

77'

C. Thomas← J. Tabiner

83'

83'

87'

90'

90'

90'

R. Cooney← L. Billington

90+3'

T. Lowery↳ O. Bogle

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChesterfieldCrewe

Overview

65%Possession35%

18Total Shots16

4Corners5

9Fouls6

Shots

18Total Shots16

3On Target6

10Off Target7

5Blocked3

11Inside Box13

7Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

527Total Passes287

430Accurate Passes198

82%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls6

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2