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Crewe vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
Preview
14:00
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
4/10/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 40Alexandra Stadium
Big match
41%
Crewe
model favours
41%25%34%

Crewe score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Crewe41%
×Draw25%
Cheltenham34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.47
Cheltenham
1.32

Crewe creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Cheltenham
1.01

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Cheltenham
1.41

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Cheltenham+0.09on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
66%
Crewe or Cheltenham
75%
Draw or Cheltenham
59%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
20%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
77%
Crewe 2+ goals
43%
Crewe 3+ goals
18%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
73%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
38%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
55%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Cheltenham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.47

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crewe scores more
41%
level
25%
Cheltenham scores more
34%

Crewe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 8 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Crewe
Balanced
Cheltenham
Balanced
50%Possession48%
70%Pass accuracy65%
11.3Shots10.5
1.44xGBiggest gap1.06
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CreweCheltenham

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

3
Crewe
3
Draws
2
Cheltenham
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 88%
1–14–12–31–22–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Crewe
WDWD
Cheltenham
WLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Crewe host Cheltenham

April 10, 2027: Crewe take on Cheltenham in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Crewe host Cheltenham at Alexandra Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.