Cheltenham 1–2 Crewe: Result & Stats | League One

Cheltenham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Crewe

K. Etete 48'

C. Porter 83'

C. Long 18'

2/26/2022

League One · Round 36Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Cheltenham46%

×Draw26%

Crewe28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchCrewe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.09

Cheltenham

1.46

Crewe

1.09

Cheltenham creates 34% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 50 away

1.19

creates per match

0.86

1.32

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.19

Crewe

0.86

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.32

Crewe

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Crewe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

72%

Cheltenham or Crewe

74%

Draw or Crewe

54%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

22%

Crewe wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

77%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

43%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

18%

Crewe 1+ goals

66%

Crewe 2+ goals

30%

Crewe 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

62%

Crewe (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Crewe away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.74 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.19 + Crewe defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.46

Crewe attack 0.86 + Cheltenham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cheltenham scores more

46%

level

26%

Crewe scores more

28%

Cheltenham at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

K. Etete

Cheltenham · F

7.6

Match Events

18'

C. Long↳ C. Porter

26'

Regan Griffiths

31'

William Boyle

48'

K. Etete↳ A. May

60'

L. Sercombe← A. Ramsey

61'

Callum Wright

64'

Travis Johnson

83'

C. Porter↳ C. O'Riordan

85'

B. Sambou← D. Agyei

87'

A. Williams← M. Pollock

90+4'

C. Salisbury← C. Long

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamCrewe

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots6

8Corners7

17Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots6

4On Target2

4Off Target2

6Blocked2

9Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

332Total Passes347

197Accurate Passes204

59%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3