Crewe 2–3 Cheltenham: Result & Stats | League Two

Crewe

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Cheltenham

C. Agius 90+5'

K. Hemmings 45' (pen)

L. Dulson 86'

J. Thomas 78'

G. Miller 22'

4/10/2025

League Two · Round 42Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Crewe41%

×Draw25%

Cheltenham34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.32

Crewe

1.47

Cheltenham

1.32

Crewe creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.53

creates per match

1.01

1.64

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Crewe

1.53

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Crewe

1.64

Cheltenham

1.41

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par

Cheltenham+0.09on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

66%

Crewe or Cheltenham

75%

Draw or Cheltenham

59%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

20%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

77%

Crewe 2+ goals

43%

Crewe 3+ goals

18%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

73%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

38%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

55%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Cheltenham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.47

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crewe scores more

41%

level

25%

Cheltenham scores more

34%

Crewe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

K. Hemmings

Crewe · F

7.7

Match Events

22'

G. Miller↳ A. Jude-Boyd

33'

Ryan HaynesMissed penalty

34'

Zac Williams

45'

K. HemmingsPenalty

46'

O. Lunt← T. Lowery

70'

A. Thibaut← J. Powell

70'

C. Agius← O. Bogle

70'

V. Adedokun← R. Haynes

73'

Scot Bennett

76'

M. Taylor← G. Miller

76'

L. Dulson← S. Bennett

78'

J. Thomas↳ V. Adedokun

86'

L. Dulson↳ A. Jude-Boyd

87'

I. Bakare← J. Thomas

90+5'

C. Agius

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CreweCheltenham

Overview

58%Possession42%

7Total Shots9

2Corners5

13Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots9

5On Target4

1Off Target3

1Blocked2

5Inside Box5

2Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

296Total Passes200

185Accurate Passes111

63%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls16

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0