Crewe 1–1 Cheltenham: Result & Stats | League One

Crewe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cheltenham

M. Mandron 28'

A. Williams 40'

8/7/2021

League One · Round 1Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Crewe41%

×Draw25%

Cheltenham33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.29

Crewe

1.46

Cheltenham

1.29

Crewe creates 13% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 69 away

1.26

creates per match

1.01

1.58

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Crewe

1.26

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Crewe

1.58

Cheltenham

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

67%

Crewe or Cheltenham

75%

Draw or Cheltenham

59%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

20%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

77%

Crewe 2+ goals

43%

Crewe 3+ goals

18%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

72%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

37%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

55%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 50 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.67 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.26 + Cheltenham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Crewe defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crewe scores more

41%

level

25%

Cheltenham scores more

33%

Crewe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

A. Williams

Cheltenham · F

7.6

Match Events

28'

M. Mandron↳ J. Lundstram

40'

A. Williams

45+1'

Andy Williams

65'

Kayne Ramsay

70'

S. MacDonald← O. Finney

80'

G. Lloyd← A. May

87'

C. Porter← C. Ainley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CreweCheltenham

Overview

57%Possession43%

7Total Shots12

3Corners2

15Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots12

1On Target6

4Off Target4

2Blocked2

4Inside Box6

3Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

467Total Passes347

365Accurate Passes247

78%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3