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Crewe vs Bolton — League One 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bolton
Bolton
A. Bakayoko 90'
3/19/2022League OneLeague One · Round 39Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Crewe35%
×Draw26%
Bolton39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.29
Bolton
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 135 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.26
Bolton
1.19

allows per match

Crewe
1.58
Bolton
1.33

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
61%
Crewe or Bolton
74%
Draw or Bolton
65%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
15%
Bolton wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
72%
Crewe 2+ goals
37%
Crewe 3+ goals
14%
Bolton 1+ goals
75%
Bolton 2+ goals
40%
Bolton 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
47%
Bolton (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 50 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.33 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.26 + Bolton defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bolton attack 1.19 + Crewe defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Crewe scores more
35%
level
26%
Bolton scores more
39%

Bolton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
D. RichardsCreweCrewe · G
7.9

Match Events

34'
Travis Johnson
34'
Oladapo Afolayan
70'
L. Murphy← O. Finney
72'
A. Bakayoko← J. Böðvarsson
75'
E. Kachunga← O. Afolayan
77'
C. Porter← R. Harper
80'
K. Dempsey← M. Williams
82'
R. Griffiths← C. Ainley
90'
A. Bakayoko↳ G. Johnston

Possession

49%Crewe

Shots

2Crewe

Pass accuracy

49%Crewe

Statistics

CreweBolton
Overview
49%Possession51%
2Total Shots16
7Corners6
13Fouls16
Shots
2Total Shots16
1On Target5
1Off Target8
0Blocked3
1Inside Box11
1Outside Box5
Passing
49%Possession51%
303Total Passes318
198Accurate Passes212
65%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls16
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides4

Crewe 0 – 1 Bolton

Bolton beat Crewe 1-0 in League One on March 19, 2022.

Goals: A. Bakayoko (90').

Bolton controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 2.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.