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Bolton vs Crewe — League One 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Crewe
Crewe
A. Bakayoko 54'
J. Sheehan 50' (pen)
11/12/2021League OneLeague One · Round 17University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Bolton55%
×Draw24%
Crewe21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.73
Crewe
0.96

Bolton creates 80% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 50 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.72
Crewe
0.86

allows per match

Bolton
1.05
Crewe
1.74

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
79%
Bolton or Crewe
76%
Draw or Crewe
45%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
31%
Crewe wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
82%
Bolton 2+ goals
52%
Bolton 3+ goals
25%
Crewe 1+ goals
62%
Crewe 2+ goals
25%
Crewe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
73%
Crewe (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 136 matches

Crewe away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.74 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.72 + Crewe defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.73

Crewe attack 0.86 + Bolton defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bolton scores more
55%
level
24%
Crewe scores more
21%

Bolton at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
RicardoBoltonBolton · D
7.9

Match Events

2'
Elias Kachunga
10'
Mikael Mandron
28'
Christopher Long
35'
Madger Gomes
50'
J. SheehanPenalty
54'
A. Bakayoko
70'
S. Kashket← C. Long
76'
C. Porter← M. Mandron
87'
X. Amaechi← A. Bakayoko
90+1'
Luke Offord

Possession

57%Bolton

Shots

14Bolton

Pass accuracy

52%Bolton

Statistics

BoltonCrewe
Overview
57%Possession43%
14Total Shots7
8Corners0
7Fouls17
Shots
14Total Shots7
5On Target2
6Off Target3
3Blocked2
11Inside Box2
3Outside Box5
Passing
57%Possession43%
523Total Passes397
442Accurate Passes309
85%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls17
1Yellow Cards4
2Offsides0

League One: Bolton 2–0 Crewe

Bolton beat Crewe 2-0 in League One on November 12, 2021.

Goals: J. Sheehan (50' pen), A. Bakayoko (54').

Bolton controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Bolton.