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Crewe vs Barnet — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Barnet
Barnet
T. O'Reilly 54'
R. Glover 80'
L. Ndlovu 57'
9/13/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Crewe37%
×Draw24%
Barnet39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.48
Barnet
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Barnet
1.40

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Barnet
1.43

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Barnet-0.15scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Barnet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
61%
Crewe or Barnet
76%
Draw or Barnet
63%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
18%
Barnet wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
77%
Crewe 2+ goals
43%
Crewe 3+ goals
19%
Barnet 1+ goals
78%
Barnet 2+ goals
45%
Barnet 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
49%
Barnet (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.43 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Barnet defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Barnet attack 1.40 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Crewe scores more
37%
level
24%
Barnet scores more
39%

Barnet at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
R. GloverBarnetBarnet · F
8.0

Match Events

38'
Anthony Hartigan
54'
T. O'Reilly↳ C. Agius
57'
L. Ndlovu↳ A. Senior
60'
N. Ofoborh← A. Hartigan
68'
J. Golding← M. Holicek
70'
Daniele Collinge
75'
L. Moult← L. Billington
77'
O. Hawkins← L. Ndlovu
80'
R. Glover
83'
E. Tezgel← O. Lunt
84'
B. Winterburn← I. Kanu
86'
Adam Senior
87'
Mark Shelton

Possession

52%Crewe

Shots

11Crewe

Pass accuracy

53%Crewe

Statistics

CreweBarnet
Overview
52%Possession48%
11Total Shots11
5Corners6
10Fouls16
Shots
11Total Shots11
4On Target4
3Off Target4
4Blocked3
6Inside Box9
5Outside Box2
Passing
52%Possession48%
295Total Passes276
200Accurate Passes169
68%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls16
0Yellow Cards4
2Offsides2

Crewe 1 – 2 Barnet

Barnet beat Crewe 2-1 in League Two on September 13, 2025.

Goals: T. O'Reilly (54'), L. Ndlovu (57'), R. Glover (80').

Crewe controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Alexandra Stadium in Crewe.