Crewe 4–1 Barnet: Result & Stats | League Two

Crewe

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Barnet

G. Cooper 76'

C. Dagnall 67', 25', 8'

C. Weston 64'

5/6/2017

League Two · Round 46Alexandra Stadium (Crewe, Cheshire)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Crewe36%

×Draw24%

Barnet39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CreweExpected goals in this matchBarnet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.52

Crewe

1.45

Barnet

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.53

creates per match

1.40

1.64

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Crewe

1.53

Barnet

1.40

allows per match

Crewe

1.64

Barnet

1.36

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par

Barnet+0.03on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Barnet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Crewe or draw

61%

Crewe or Barnet

76%

Draw or Barnet

64%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+

17%

Barnet wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals

77%

Crewe 2+ goals

42%

Crewe 3+ goals

18%

Barnet 1+ goals

78%

Barnet 2+ goals

45%

Barnet 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)

48%

Barnet (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Barnet defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.45

Barnet attack 1.40 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Crewe scores more

36%

level

24%

Barnet scores more

39%

Barnet at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

C. Dagnall↳ J. Jones

25'

C. Dagnall↳ O. Turton

29'

E. Johnson← D. Tutonda

45+3'

C. Ainley← C. Cooke

46'

E. Mason-Clark← W. Fonguck

64'

C. Weston↳ H. Taylor

67'

C. Dagnall↳ Z. Bakayogo

69'

L. Coulson← J. Campbell-Ryce

72'

O. Finney← J. Jones

76'

G. Cooper↳ B. Garratt

78'

C. Kirk← G. Cooper

Crewe

Barnet

12

Vickers

6

Nelson

16

A

Taylor

40

▼

Tutonda

13

▼

Campbell-

41

Clough

8

⚽

Weston

27

▼

28

9

14

1

A

Garratt

14

A

Bakayogo

2

A

Turton

23

Ng

18

Bingham

24

▼

Cooke

8

A

▼

Jones

11

⚽

▼

Cooper

21

Wintle

9

⚽3

Dagnall

16

Bowery

Manager: D. Artell

45+3'▲C. Ainley←▼C. Cooke

72'▲O. Finney←▼J. Jones

78'▲C. Kirk←▼G. Cooper

Crewe substitutes

25Ainley35Finney20Kirk17Udoh30Pickering31Dawber36Lowery

Manager: R. Eames

29'▲E. Johnson←▼D. Tutonda

46'▲E. Mason-Clark←▼W. Fonguck

69'▲L. Coulson←▼J. Campbell-Ryce

Barnet substitutes

3Johnson34Mason-Clark17Coulson11Bover25Shomotun31McKenzie-Lyle44Smith

Match Recap: Crewe vs Barnet

Crewe beat Barnet 4-1 in League Two on May 6, 2017.

Goals: C. Dagnall (8', 25', 67'), C. Weston (64'), G. Cooper (76').

The match was played at Alexandra Stadium (Crewe, Cheshire).

Crewe vs Barnet — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Crewe vs Barnet