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Cremonese vs Carrarese — Serie B 2018

Cremonese
Cremonese
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Carrarese
Carrarese
F. Vázquez 88' (pen)
8/24/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 2Stadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cremonese52%
×Draw25%
Carrarese22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cremonese
1.56
Carrarese
0.92

Cremonese creates 70% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 38 away

creates per match

Cremonese
1.39
Carrarese
0.95

allows per match

Cremonese
0.89
Carrarese
1.74

finishing

Cremonese+0.00on par
Carrarese+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese ↓

Carrarese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cremonese or draw
78%
Cremonese or Carrarese
75%
Draw or Carrarese
48%

Winning margin

Cremonese wins by 2+
27%
Carrarese wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cremonese 1+ goals
79%
Cremonese 2+ goals
46%
Cremonese 3+ goals
21%
Carrarese 1+ goals
60%
Carrarese 2+ goals
23%
Carrarese 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cremonese (draw refunded)
70%
Carrarese (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.89 · 117 matches

Carrarese away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.74 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese attack 1.39 + Carrarese defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Carrarese attack 0.95 + Cremonese defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cremonese scores more
52%
level
25%
Carrarese scores more
22%

Cremonese at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
V. AntovCremoneseCremonese · D
7.9

Match Events

11'
Charles Pickel
23'
Leonardo Capezzi
25'
Julián Illanes
46'
D. Johnsen← J. Vandeputte
46'
F. Vázquez← F. Bonazzoli
61'
R. Palmieri← E. Zuelli
69'
L. Zanimacchia← T. Barbieri
69'
M. Nasti← M. De Luca
77'
S. Giovane← N. Schiavi
77'
N. Belloni← M. Cicconi
86'
Julián Illanes
88'
F. VázquezPenalty
89'
A. Capello← L. Capezzi
90+8'
Charles Pickel
90+8'
Charles Pickel
90+8'
Alessandro Capello
90+3'
L. Lochoshvili← V. Antov
90'
L. Cerri← M. Finotto

Possession

63%Cremonese

Shots

16Cremonese

Pass accuracy

52%Cremonese

Statistics

CremoneseCarrarese
Overview
63%Possession37%
16Total Shots10
5Corners5
14Fouls7
Shots
16Total Shots10
4On Target3
7Off Target4
5Blocked3
10Inside Box5
6Outside Box5
Passing
63%Possession37%
544Total Passes314
451Accurate Passes241
83%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls7
2Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards1
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Cremonese vs Carrarese

Cremonese beat Carrarese 1-0 in Serie B on August 24, 2024.

Goals: F. Vázquez (88' pen).

Cremonese controlled possession (63%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Cremona.