Carrarese 2–2 Cremonese: Result & Stats | Serie B

Carrarese

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Cremonese

L. Cherubini 42'

M. Finotto 26'

D. Johnsen 87'

L. Zanimacchia 12'

3/1/2025

Serie B · Round 28Stadio dei Marmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Carrarese37%

×Draw28%

Cremonese36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarrareseExpected goals in this matchCremonese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.18

Carrarese

1.20

Cremonese

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 61 away

1.32

creates per match

1.43

0.92

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Carrarese

1.32

Cremonese

1.43

allows per match

Carrarese

0.92

Cremonese

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carrarese+0.00on par

Cremonese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrarese ↓

Cremonese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Carrarese or draw

64%

Carrarese or Cremonese

72%

Draw or Cremonese

63%

Winning margin

Carrarese wins by 2+

16%

Cremonese wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Carrarese 1+ goals

70%

Carrarese 2+ goals

34%

Carrarese 3+ goals

12%

Cremonese 1+ goals

69%

Cremonese 2+ goals

33%

Cremonese 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Carrarese (draw refunded)

51%

Cremonese (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrarese at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Cremonese away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.08 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrarese attack 1.32 + Cremonese defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Cremonese attack 1.43 + Carrarese defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Carrarese scores more

37%

level

28%

Cremonese scores more

36%

Carrarese at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Carrarese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

M. Finotto

Carrarese · F

7.7

Match Events

12'

L. Zanimacchia↳ M. Nasti

26'

M. Finotto↳ E. Torregrossa

32'

Valentin Antov

42'

L. Cherubini↳ G. Guarino

45'

45'

46'

46'

53'

53'

D. Johnsen← F. Vázquez

57'

Matteo Bianchetti

58'

D. Bouah← N. Belloni

59'

F. Melegoni← E. Torregrossa

64'

F. Bonazzoli← J. Vandeputte

73'

L. Cerri← M. Finotto

73'

S. Giovane← L. Cherubini

75'

Leonardo Cerri

76'

Filippo Melegoni

80'

F. Gelli← Ž. Majer

87'

D. Johnsen↳ Paulo Azzi

88'

T. Milanese← E. Zuelli

90+4'

Charles Pickel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarrareseCremonese

Overview

33%Possession67%

6Total Shots19

0Corners7

12Fouls14

Shots

6Total Shots19

3On Target5

3Off Target10

0Blocked4

5Inside Box12

1Outside Box7

Passing

33%Possession67%

243Total Passes484

171Accurate Passes406

70%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls14

4Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0

Serie B: Carrarese 2–2 Cremonese

Carrarese and Cremonese drew 2-2 in Serie B on March 1, 2025.

Goals: L. Zanimacchia (12'), M. Finotto (26'), L. Cherubini (42'), D. Johnsen (87').

Cremonese controlled possession (67%) and registered 19 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio dei Marmi in Carrara.

Carrarese vs Cremonese — Serie B 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Carrarese 2–2 Cremonese