Cremonese 1–1 Brescia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cremonese

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brescia

F. Vázquez 60'

G. Moncini 90+6'

12/29/2024

Serie B · Round 20Stadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Cremonese44%

×Draw28%

Brescia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CremoneseExpected goals in this matchBrescia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.02

Cremonese

1.33

Brescia

1.02

Cremonese creates 30% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 117 away

1.39

creates per match

1.15

0.89

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Cremonese

1.39

Brescia

1.15

allows per match

Cremonese

0.89

Brescia

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cremonese+0.00on par

Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese ↓

Brescia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cremonese or draw

71%

Cremonese or Brescia

72%

Draw or Brescia

56%

Winning margin

Cremonese wins by 2+

20%

Brescia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cremonese 1+ goals

74%

Cremonese 2+ goals

38%

Cremonese 3+ goals

15%

Brescia 1+ goals

64%

Brescia 2+ goals

27%

Brescia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cremonese (draw refunded)

60%

Brescia (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.89 · 117 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.28 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese attack 1.39 + Brescia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Brescia attack 1.15 + Cremonese defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cremonese scores more

44%

level

28%

Brescia scores more

29%

Cremonese at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

F. Vázquez

Cremonese · F

7.9

Match Events

20'

Michele Collocolo

26'

Dimitri Bisoli

37'

Davide Adorni

46'

N. Galazzi← B. Bjarnason

46'

G. Moncini← P. Nuamah

60'

F. Vázquez↳ G. Quagliata

65'

Giacomo Olzer

66'

C. Pickel← M. Collocolo

66'

M. De Luca← F. Vázquez

69'

M. Besaggio← G. Olzer

75'

Leonardo Sernicola

77'

Manuel De LucaGoal cancelled

83'

T. Milanese← J. Vandeputte

83'

D. Johnsen← F. Bonazzoli

83'

N. Corrado← A. Jallow

83'

F. Bianchi← D. Bisoli

85'

Andrea Cistana

85'

Nicolas GalazziCard upgrade

88'

T. Barbieri← G. Quagliata

90'

Manuel De Luca

90+7'

Gabriele Moncini

90+6'

G. Moncini↳ A. Jurič

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CremoneseBrescia

Overview

70%Possession30%

16Total Shots10

7Corners6

17Fouls19

Shots

16Total Shots10

6On Target4

5Off Target4

5Blocked2

8Inside Box5

8Outside Box5

Passing

70%Possession30%

544Total Passes222

477Accurate Passes147

88%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls19

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1