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Cremonese vs Brescia — Serie B 2018

Cremonese
Cremonese
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Brescia
Brescia
3/5/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 28Stadio Giovanni Zini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Cremonese44%
×Draw28%
Brescia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cremonese
1.33
Brescia
1.03

Cremonese creates 29% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 116 away

creates per match

Cremonese
1.39
Brescia
1.18

allows per match

Cremonese
0.89
Brescia
1.28

finishing

Cremonese+0.00on par
Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese ↓

Brescia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cremonese or draw
71%
Cremonese or Brescia
72%
Draw or Brescia
56%

Winning margin

Cremonese wins by 2+
20%
Brescia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cremonese 1+ goals
74%
Cremonese 2+ goals
38%
Cremonese 3+ goals
15%
Brescia 1+ goals
64%
Brescia 2+ goals
28%
Brescia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cremonese (draw refunded)
60%
Brescia (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.89 · 117 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.28 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese attack 1.39 + Brescia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Brescia attack 1.18 + Cremonese defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cremonese scores more
44%
level
28%
Brescia scores more
29%

Cremonese at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cremonese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Cremonese 2–1 Brescia

Cremonese beat Brescia 2-1 in Serie B on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Cremona.