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Cremonese U20 vs Cagliari U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Cremonese U20
Cremonese U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cagliari U20
Cagliari U20
12/6/2025Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 14Campo Amadio Soldi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cremonese U2040%
×Draw25%
Cagliari U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cremonese U20
1.44
Cagliari U20
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 39 away

creates per match

Cremonese U20
1.18
Cagliari U20
1.15

allows per match

Cremonese U20
1.50
Cagliari U20
1.69

finishing

Cremonese U20+0.00on par
Cagliari U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cremonese U20 ↓

Cagliari U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cremonese U20 or draw
65%
Cremonese U20 or Cagliari U20
75%
Draw or Cagliari U20
60%

Winning margin

Cremonese U20 wins by 2+
19%
Cagliari U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cremonese U20 1+ goals
76%
Cremonese U20 2+ goals
42%
Cremonese U20 3+ goals
18%
Cagliari U20 1+ goals
73%
Cagliari U20 2+ goals
38%
Cagliari U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cremonese U20 (draw refunded)
54%
Cagliari U20 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cremonese U20 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

Cagliari U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cremonese U20 attack 1.18 + Cagliari U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.44

Cagliari U20 attack 1.15 + Cremonese U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cremonese U20 scores more
40%
level
25%
Cagliari U20 scores more
35%

Cremonese U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cremonese U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Cremonese U20 2–1 Cagliari U20

Cremonese U20 beat Cagliari U20 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on December 6, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Amadio Soldi.