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Cagliari U20 vs Cremonese U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Cagliari U20
Cagliari U20
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cremonese U20
Cremonese U20
1/12/2025Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 19Campioni d'Italia 1969/70 Asseminello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cagliari U2050%
×Draw26%
Cremonese U2024%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cagliari U20
1.50
Cremonese U20
0.95

Cagliari U20 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Cagliari U20
1.39
Cremonese U20
1.03

allows per match

Cagliari U20
0.87
Cremonese U20
1.61

finishing

Cagliari U20+0.00on par
Cremonese U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari U20 ↓

Cremonese U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cagliari U20 or draw
76%
Cagliari U20 or Cremonese U20
74%
Draw or Cremonese U20
50%

Winning margin

Cagliari U20 wins by 2+
25%
Cremonese U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cagliari U20 1+ goals
78%
Cagliari U20 2+ goals
44%
Cagliari U20 3+ goals
19%
Cremonese U20 1+ goals
61%
Cremonese U20 2+ goals
25%
Cremonese U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cagliari U20 (draw refunded)
68%
Cremonese U20 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari U20 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.87 · 38 matches

Cremonese U20 away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari U20 attack 1.39 + Cremonese U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cremonese U20 attack 1.03 + Cagliari U20 defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cagliari U20 scores more
50%
level
26%
Cremonese U20 scores more
24%

Cagliari U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cagliari U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Cagliari U20 3–0 Cremonese U20

Cagliari U20 beat Cremonese U20 3-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Campioni d'Italia 1969/70 Asseminello in Cagliari.