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Creck vs CIVO United — Super League 2026

Creck
Creck
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CIVO United
CIVO United
M. Biason 44'
6/28/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Creck41%
×Draw29%
CIVO United30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Creck
1.23
CIVO United
1.00

Creck creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 80 away

creates per match

Creck
1.32
CIVO United
1.06

allows per match

Creck
0.94
CIVO United
1.15

finishing

Creck+0.00on par
CIVO United+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Creck ↓

CIVO United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Creck or draw
70%
Creck or CIVO United
71%
Draw or CIVO United
59%

Winning margin

Creck wins by 2+
18%
CIVO United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Creck 1+ goals
71%
Creck 2+ goals
35%
Creck 3+ goals
13%
CIVO United 1+ goals
63%
CIVO United 2+ goals
26%
CIVO United 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Creck (draw refunded)
58%
CIVO United (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Creck at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

CIVO United away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Creck attack 1.32 + CIVO United defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

CIVO United attack 1.06 + Creck defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Creck scores more
41%
level
29%
CIVO United scores more
30%

Creck at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Creck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
M. Biason

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Creck vs CIVO United

CIVO United beat Creck 1-0 in Super League on June 28, 2026.

Goals: M. Biason (44').