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CIVO United vs Creck — Super League 2026

CIVO United
CIVO United
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Creck
Creck
10/30/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Champion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

CIVO United47%
×Draw30%
Creck22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CIVO United
1.19
Creck
0.72

CIVO United creates 65% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 35 away

creates per match

CIVO United
1.20
Creck
0.86

allows per match

CIVO United
0.59
Creck
1.17

finishing

CIVO United+0.00on par
Creck+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CIVO United ↓

Creck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

CIVO United or draw
78%
CIVO United or Creck
70%
Draw or Creck
53%

Winning margin

CIVO United wins by 2+
21%
Creck wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CIVO United 1+ goals
70%
CIVO United 2+ goals
33%
CIVO United 3+ goals
12%
Creck 1+ goals
51%
Creck 2+ goals
16%
Creck 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CIVO United (draw refunded)
68%
Creck (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CIVO United at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.59 · 79 matches

Creck away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.17 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CIVO United attack 1.20 + Creck defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Creck attack 0.86 + CIVO United defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CIVO United scores more
47%
level
30%
Creck scores more
22%

CIVO United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CIVO United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: CIVO United 1–3 Creck

Creck beat CIVO United 3-1 in Super League on October 30, 2024.

The match was played at Champion Stadium in Mponela.