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CRB vs Criciuma — Serie B 2026

CRB
CRB
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Criciuma
Criciuma
Benevenuto 57' (OG)
5/18/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 8Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

CRB45%
×Draw27%
Criciuma28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CRB
1.36
Criciuma
1.00

CRB creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

CRB
1.56
Criciuma
0.87

allows per match

CRB
1.12
Criciuma
1.16

finishing

CRB-0.02on par
Criciuma-0.16scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CRB ↓

Criciuma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CRB or draw
72%
CRB or Criciuma
73%
Draw or Criciuma
55%

Winning margin

CRB wins by 2+
21%
Criciuma wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

CRB 1+ goals
74%
CRB 2+ goals
39%
CRB 3+ goals
16%
Criciuma 1+ goals
63%
Criciuma 2+ goals
26%
Criciuma 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CRB (draw refunded)
62%
Criciuma (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CRB at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.12 · 13 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.16 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CRB attack 1.56 + Criciuma defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.36

Criciuma attack 0.87 + CRB defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CRB scores more
45%
level
27%
Criciuma scores more
28%

CRB at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
Matheus AlbinoCRBCRB · G
8.9

Match Events

46'
Mikael← Breno Herculano
46'
Leo Alaba← Marcinho
46'
Talisson← Werik Popo
51'
Talisson
55'
Higor Meritão
57'
BenevenutoOwn goal
62'
Vinicius Barata← Douglas Baggio
62'
Hayner← Thiaguinho
62'
Juninho← Ze Gabriel
71'
Fernando Henrique← Lucas Kallyel
73'
Léo AlabaPenalty confirmed
82'
Rafinha← Danielzinho
82'
O. Otusanya← Diego Goncalves
85'
Heitor Roca← Matheus Trindade

Possession

50%CRB

Shots

17CRB

Pass accuracy

51%CRB

Statistics

CRBCriciuma
Overview
50%Possession50%
17Total Shots18
1Corners5
12Fouls18
Shots
17Total Shots18
2On Target6
7Off Target5
8Blocked7
8Inside Box9
9Outside Box9
Passing
50%Possession50%
412Total Passes405
345Accurate Passes333
84%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls18
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

CRB 1 – 0 Criciuma

CRB beat Criciuma 1-0 in Serie B on May 18, 2025.

Goals: Benevenuto (57' o.g.).

CRB controlled possession (50%) and registered 17 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.