CRB 0–1 Criciuma: Result & Stats | Serie B

CRB

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Criciuma

Claudinho 50'

10/21/2023

Serie B · Round 33Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

CRB45%

×Draw27%

Criciuma28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CRBExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.00

CRB

1.36

Criciuma

1.00

CRB creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.56

creates per match

0.87

1.12

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

CRB

1.56

Criciuma

0.87

allows per match

CRB

1.12

Criciuma

1.16

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

CRB-0.02on par

Criciuma-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CRB ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CRB or draw

72%

CRB or Criciuma

73%

Draw or Criciuma

55%

Winning margin

CRB wins by 2+

21%

Criciuma wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CRB 1+ goals

74%

CRB 2+ goals

39%

CRB 3+ goals

16%

Criciuma 1+ goals

63%

Criciuma 2+ goals

26%

Criciuma 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CRB (draw refunded)

62%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CRB at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.12 · 13 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.16 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CRB attack 1.56 + Criciuma defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.36

Criciuma attack 0.87 + CRB defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CRB scores more

45%

level

27%

Criciuma scores more

28%

CRB at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

98

Falcão

CRB · M

7.7

Match Events

40'

Hereda← Guilherme Romão

46'

Renato← Juninho Valoura

50'

Claudinho↳ Éder

57'

Cristovam← Claudinho

61'

João Paulo

67'

Hélder← Jonathan

67'

Fabinho← Éder

68'

Bruno Silva← Léo Pereira

68'

Rafael Longuine← Lucas Lima

77'

80'

82'

82'

87'

88'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CRBCriciuma

Overview

67%Possession33%

14Total Shots10

7Corners7

12Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots10

2On Target5

11Off Target3

1Blocked2

5Inside Box5

9Outside Box5

Passing

67%Possession33%

487Total Passes236

407Accurate Passes150

84%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

CRB 0 – 1 Criciuma

Criciuma beat CRB 1-0 in Serie B on October 21, 2023.

Goals: Claudinho (50').

CRB controlled possession (67%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.

CRB vs Criciuma — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CRB 0 – 1 Criciuma